In yesterday’s entry I emphasized that this off-season is a perilous one for the Phillies organization. Over the course of my entry I gave some valid reasons for this, but managed not to express just how serious the situation is. Think of it this way, last season the Phils won the NL East by three games. They would have only won the wild card by two games if they had not taken the division. In 2007 the division was won by one game, and they would not have made the playoffs if they did not defeat the Mets. That means that over those two seasons (approximately 244 games) the Phillies made the playoffs by a whopping margin of four games. With only a slight shift in fortune the Fightins could have very easily been on the outside looking in. I’m not, by any means trying to be a doomsayer. They definitely earned those titles. But the National League East is going to be even more competitive next year than it was this past season. The Mets are likely to land at least one major free agent, the Marlins will be fiercely competitive with their slew of young talent , and the Braves are not going to quietly ride into the sunset. They will dog the Phillies steps all season. If we want to win next year, we need to improve just as much as the other teams improve. That does not mean we need any major changes, but we do have important holes to fill.
Over the past few winters the Phillies have consistently prioritized pitching. That trend is continuing. Today’s focus will be on the starting rotation. The top three spots are projected to be Hamels, Myers and Blanton. Signing Jamie Moyer is one of the top priorities for the Phillies front office, and at this point that conclusion seems likely. He would fill in very nicely as a fourth man in the rotation. This would then leave Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ and Carlos Carrasco to battle for the fifth spot. Kendrick has been successful in terms of wins and losses in limited work for the Phillies over the past two seasons, but hit a wall towards the latter half of this past campaign. The general consensus is that he needs to develop another pitch before he can truly be successful as a starter. Let us assume, for the moment, that Kendrick will not be able to learn that new pitch before spring training (Rumor has it that he is being encouraged to learn a change-up to go with his sinker. Change-ups traditionally take between two and three years to become truly effective, but if he can even show it next year it may give him an edge). This leaves Happ and Carrasco fighting for the fifth spot. Happ looked good in a few big starts late last season and seems more ready for the show right now. Furthermore, Carrasco is a highly touted prospect who is being projected into a two or three starter. They will probably try to bring him along conservatively and leave him in the minors until part way through the year. It is always a good rule of thumb to have at least one useable starter in the minors in case of an injury in your starting rotation. Having a quality young arm in the wings is an asset. This could all be thrown aside if Carrasco comes into spring training and goes on a tear. The black as sin dark horse for this rotation spot is Adam Eaton (nothing personal, he just has a really bad contract). The chances of him getting out of the minors are slim. But any time a team is paying a guy in the ballpark of eight million a year they will likely try to at least give him a legit shot at making the team.
Quite frankly, the Phillies have what could amount to an ideal starting rotation. They may not have the most talent in the league, but they have the perfect balance and set-up. There is a true ace in the one spot with Cole Hamels. The run he made in the playoffs cemented his confidence and established his place there. Myers is pretty close to the ideal for a number two starter as well. The two spot in the rotation is tricky. Some teams try to cement it with another ace type of pitcher. This move is financially risky, and could backfire big time if the egos get going. What you really want out of a two guy is somebody who is capable of giving you ace performance on any given day, but for some reason is not considered to be at the level of an ace. Myers has the stuff and the drive to dominate a team, but his emotions can get the better of him and lead to some tough stretches. This makes him a solid two. At the three spot teams will usually look for a solid contributor who can give you consistency, but still has the ability to step up and take over a game if the top two guys are struggling, or if one gets hurt. Blanton is perfect in this role. He has shown solid stuff with the potential to be nasty at spots. His experience is solid, but he is not aged enough to have to worry too much about injuries. Beyond that, he is a bit of an unknown for Philadelphia. He came in around the trade deadline and helped push us into the playoffs. Perhaps this change of scenery can get him to the level that he was projected to reach with the A’s (He definitely closed out last season at that level). This could leave the team with a stud at the three spot. Moyer, is then the perfect four. He should be expected to have similar success to last season, and if that is the case he would be a great fit at the three spot as well. But there is some reason to believe that he may decline a bit simply because he is so aged. However, we should see double digit wins from Jamie this coming year. His age is a Godsend when it comes to the fifth spot in the rotation. Very simply, he is an ideal candidate to mentor whoever takes over that job. Having a young starter with high potential is perfect for the final piece of the rotation. With four very solid guys ahead of him, the fifth starter will have little pressure to win lots of games. This will allow him to focus on adjusting to major league hitters. Top to bottom, the Phillies rotation is very well set.
There really are only two things that could put a wrench in the Phillies rotation plans. The first of which is Moyer leaving. If Jamie signs elsewhere the Phils will likely look to free agency to replace him. With a number of veterans available at potentially budget prices there is a good chance that they would just pick somebody up. There is a good chance that somebody like Randy Wolf, a solid veteran who can provide innings and experience would be the replacement. The other potential pitfall comes if the need arrives to trade for a left fielder. Right now, Kendrick seems like the pitcher most likely to be traded as Happ has been more successful recently and Carrasco is projected to be the most productive of the trio long term. Kendrick would likely have good value, especially to teams looking for young pitchers who are very close to being major league ready.
Overall, the starting rotation is pretty well set. The bullpen is in the same boat, but is still being targeted as a need during this hot stove season. Manuel wants to increase depth and possibly get a guy who can go multiple innings. Stop by on Friday for an update on the Phillies bullpen outlook for this winter.
Keywords: Hot Stove Season, Off-season, Philadelphia Phillies, Starting Rotation
